aviation industry leaders. World civil aviation market Civil aviation market in the world

The Russian aviation industry is starting the biggest reform since 2006, when the United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) was created. Now we are talking about the merger of UAC, the Irkut corporation and the company " Civil aircraft Sukhoi" into a single structure that will deal with all civilian programs of the UAC. It will also become the head division of the entire corporation.

This means that the UAC considers the civil aircraft industry to be the key direction. On the one hand, in the face of a reduction in the state defense order, the inevitability of which has been repeatedly announced at the highest level, aircraft manufacturers do not have to choose. On the other hand, if the authority of Russia in the region military aviation no one disputes, then the market civil aircraft our country falls into the category of outsiders.

Which is quite fair, considering that only 30 civil aircraft were produced in Russia last year. For comparison, market leaders Boeing and Airbus produced 748 and 577 aircraft, respectively.

A logical question arises - what can the KLA expect in the current situation?

big pie

According to the forecast presented by the United Aircraft Corporation at the July MAKS-2017 air show, global demand for new passenger aircraft with a capacity of more than 30 seats in the next twenty years will be 41,800 aircraft total value of nearly 6 trillion dollars.

At the same time, narrow-body aircraft with a capacity of 120 or more seats will be in greatest demand among airlines, which will account for 63% of the total number of new aircraft. For this segment, UAC is developing the MC-21 program.

About 4.6 thousand units (11% of the total) of new jet aircraft with a capacity of 61-120 seats will be sold by 2036. This segment in UAC is represented by the Sukhoi Superjet SSJ 100 program.

The demand for turboprop aircraft with a capacity of 30 seats or more will be about 2.3 thousand units. In this segment, UAC is developing the Il-114 program.
The total demand for wide-body aircraft will be 7450 aircraft. For this segment, UAC, together with the China Civil Aviation Corporation COMAS, plans to develop and produce a wide-body long-range aircraft of a new generation. A joint venture was opened in Shanghai this year to manage the program.

That is, theoretically, Russian aircraft manufacturers have something to respond to market demands. In practice, everything is a little more complicated.

Three gray horses

To begin with, only the Sukhoi Superjet is really present on the market today. This is the first domestic aircraft developed after a quarter-century break. Unfortunately, the hopes associated with this project were only partially justified.

The pilots who had a chance to fly the Superjet rate the aircraft very highly - no worse than the Airbus A-320 (with better efficiency) and definitely better than the Brazilian Embraer. At the same time, the presence of many minor malfunctions is recognized, which, however, do not affect flight safety. The main complaint of the professionals is related to the very poor service support, due to which the planes stand idle for a long time without spare parts.

Passengers have more complaints - there is poor noise and vibration isolation (“I sat in seat 7F by the engine and received free vibration massage - very strong noise and vibration”), as well as small and low windows.

Most often, Russians compare the SSJ 100 with the UAZ Patriot car: a good transport for passengers without any special claims. It is noteworthy that the Mexican pilots (the Mexican company Interjet purchased 30 SSJ 100) nicknamed the "Superjet" a tank.

It is clear that with such characteristics it is not easy to conquer the world market. As a result, the project remains chronically unprofitable. To reach profitability, UAC needs to sell at least 300 aircraft, but three times less has been sold so far. The maximum annual production of SSJ 100 was reached in 2014 - 35 aircraft were produced. In 2015-2016, due to changes in the macroeconomic situation, sales plans were adjusted to 17 and 18 units, respectively.

For comparison, the Brazilian Embraer produced 225 aircraft last year: 117 business jets and 108 regional aircraft - competitors of the Superjet. It is not surprising that UAC President Yuri Slyusar recently announced that he was abandoning large volumes of SSJ production: the corporation plans to produce 30-40 Superjets per year, but is not going to "scale this project to large volumes."

Now the main hope of the UAC was the MS-21 project. This aircraft is close in characteristics to today's segment leader, the Canadian Bombardier CS300. Like the Canadian aircraft, the Russian aircraft was built according to the most modern technologies using composite materials and with the same Pratt & Whitney engines (although in the future it is planned to install the domestic PD-14 engine on the MS-21). Economical engines and a lightweight body allow the Bombardier CS300 and MC-21 to save up to 20% of fuel compared to Boeing and Airbus aircraft of this class. At the same time, the MS-21 is more capacious than the Bombardier CS300 - it has 176 passenger seats(the Canadian has 130), which makes its use more profitable.

Il-114 is an aircraft from the past: it made its first flight back in 1999 and until 2012 was produced at the Tashkent Aviation Production Association named after. V. P. Chkalov. A total of ten Il-114s were produced with Pratt & Whitney Canada engines. Now these aircraft are part of the Uzbekistan Airways fleet.
The United Aircraft Corporation plans to resume production of the Il-114 with Russian TV7-117ST engines at the plant in Lukhovitsy, which will produce 12-18 aircraft per year. The total production volume, including civilian and special versions, may reach 100 vehicles. The first flight of the updated Il-114 should be made in 2018.

Aeroflot vs the Ministry of Industry and Trade

The main problem that the UAC must solve is not related to the development or production of new aircraft, but to their marketing. It is already clear that the Superjet will not reach the output of 300 aircraft required to pay off the project. MS-21 at the current level of investment will pay off after the sale of 200 aircraft. The already produced IL-114 has the greatest chance of paying off - if the planned 100 aircraft are produced and sold, the project can be considered commercially successful.

Meanwhile, according to Boeing estimates, the needs of the Russian market for the foreseeable future will amount to a maximum of 40 passenger aircraft all types per year. It is unlikely that MS-21, SSJ-100 and Il-114 will take up all this volume. Although the government is doing everything possible and impossible for this. In particular, the Ministry of Industry and Trade proposed to abolish privileges for the import of foreign aircraft, which "will establish customs and tariff protection for the domestic market in the interests of Russian aircraft - SSJ 100 extended version and MS-21-300."

This innovation was actively opposed by Aeroflot, whose fleet is to receive 31(!) foreign aircraft in 2018. The company sent a letter to First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov stating that if the preferential regime is suspended, additional costs for the import of aircraft will exceed 25 billion rubles. As a result, Aeroflot will have to reduce the plan for purchasing aircraft "both foreign and Russian-made", which will not allow expanding route network, "including regional and socially significant routes".

Photo: Portal Moscow 24/Lidia Shironina

Unreal export

Even if the main Russian airline does not burn with the desire to refuse to import aircraft in order to support the Superjet and MS-21, what can we say about foreigners. Moreover, foreign buyers of new Russian aircraft will have to take into account a bunch of additional risks.

Firstly, the Irkut corporation, the manufacturer of the MS-21, is known in the world as a manufacturer of fighters. The first civil aircraft produced by the corporation, the airlines will meet with great caution. It will be possible to talk about purchases only when Aeroflot has gained experience in operating the MS-21 (which will have to acquire new aircraft on a voluntary-compulsory basis).

Secondly, any new aircraft requires fine-tuning and refinement, the average period of which is about 15 years. And not a single serious airline will order large batches of aircraft that have not passed this period. But even then, new manufacturers like Irkut can only count on orders from smaller carriers that don't have their own aircraft maintenance and repair facilities. It is these companies that are less tied to market leaders.

Thirdly, in 2018, the Chinese C919 enters the medium-haul aircraft market, which, relying on the massive support of its government, can become a serious competitor to all global manufacturers.

Thus, for at least the next 15-20 years, the Russian aircraft industry will be a planned and unprofitable industry, living largely on budget subsidies. Under these conditions, it is very likely that the Ministry of Finance will lobby for another optimization of the aviation industry, after which only the export-attractive military segment will remain from the industry.

Continuation. Beginning at No. 5-2009

3. New projects of regional aircraft

Chinese regional aircraft ARJ21

The Chinese-designed regional passenger aircraft ARJ21-700 made its first flight in November 2008. In April 2009, its flight tests began. The ARJ21-700 turbofan passenger aircraft is designed for short and medium haul airlines. This aircraft is designed to carry 70-110 passengers for a range of up to 3,700 km (the base model of the aircraft is designed to carry 90 passengers for a range of 2,225 km). Its cost ranges from $27 million to $29 million. The first batches of liners are planned to be handed over to customers in 2010. It is also envisaged to create a cargo version of the aircraft with a maximum carrying capacity of about 10 tons.

ARJ21 is the first Chinese jetliner for domestic and overseas market passenger traffic created in accordance with international standards and with the participation of specialists from other countries. The Ukrainian aircraft manufacturers from the ASTC im. OK. Antonova. When building the aircraft, the Chinese used components from Western manufacturers, for example, Rockwell Collins was chosen as the supplier of avionics, and General Electric - the power plant. This means that Chinese aircraft manufacturers followed the traditional path of introducing existing world achievements, while simultaneously adopting design experience. The developers say that the estimated life of the aircraft is 20 years, and the production volume is estimated at about 500 units - 350 for the Chinese domestic market and 150 overseas carriers.

Japanese regional aircraft MRJ

The MRJ (Mitsubishi Regional Jet) aircraft is designed as a regional passenger airliner with 70–90 passenger seats. Its developers are the Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and Fudzy Heavy Industries corporations together with the Japan Aircraft Development Association and the Toyota concern (the latter intends to invest 10 billion Japanese yen in the project - about $100 million). The total development cost is about 120 billion yen (approximately $1 billion). Two modifications of the aircraft are being developed - for 70–80 and 86–96 passenger seats. The flight range of the aircraft should be from 1600 to 3900 km. The American company Pratt & Whittney (P&W) will develop the engine. Received pre-orders for 100 aircraft, and, in addition to the Japanese airlines JAL and ANA, foreign air carriers began to show attention to the new aircraft.

The new aircraft should take off already in 2012 and appear on the market in early 2013. The first aircraft in the 90-seat configuration (MRJ90) will be received by the launch customer, the Japanese All Nippon Airways. The second largest Japanese carrier ordered 15 units. 90-seat cars with an option for another 10 liners. The cost of the base MRJ90 is estimated at $ 38 million. In total, Mitsubishi expects to sell from 300 to 500 MRJ aircraft. Including the possibility of creating an "extended" version for 115 seats is also being considered.

New projects from Bombardier

According to the forecast of the Canadian firm Bombardier, in the next 20 years, the world's airlines will need 6,300 units of 100-149-seat aircraft with a total value of over $250 billion. The company's goal is to capture half of this market. In 2008, Bombardier announced the launch of a program to produce a family of new CSeries aircraft with a typical five-abreast seating arrangement. The aircraft development program was launched in 2004, the commissioning of the aircraft is scheduled for 2013. The designation of the new aircraft of this series is CS100 and CS300 with a capacity of 110-115 and 122-145 passengers, respectively. The flight range of the aircraft is about 3000 km. There are modifications CS100ER and CS300ER with increased flight range up to 5000 km. The price of the aircraft is about $51 million.

New aircraft will have to emit less carbon dioxide and nitrogen oxides than existing regional aircraft (up to 20 and 50% respectively) and will be four times less noisy. It is also expected to reduce fuel consumption and operating costs by 20% and 15%, respectively. Thus, at maximum passenger cabin density, CSeries aircraft will consume only two liters of fuel to carry one passenger per 100 km.

Bombardier continues to market the new generation of CRJ NG (Next Generation) regional jets. The company offered carriers a lightweight version of the CRJ-1000 EuroLite (EL) aircraft with 100 seats. Compared to the base aircraft, the novelty is 1.8 tons lighter. The new version is designed to minimize costs for European operators who need a short haul aircraft. The CRJ aircraft project was launched in 2007 and in 2008 the aircraft made its first flight. Commissioning is scheduled for 2010. Development of the CRJ-1000ER variant with a flight range increased to 3130 km is envisaged.

New Embraer projects

Most new project Brazilian company Embraer is a regional aircraft E-195, which entered service in 2006. It differs from its predecessors E-190/175/170 by an increased number of passenger seats to 106–122 and a flight range of 3990 km for the 195 LR version.

Embraer intends, like Bombardier, to continue to increase the number of seats on regional aircraft and already in 2011 step over the bar of 120 seats and move on. The next family of regional aircraft is expected closer to 2020, after which they will be able to really compete with the A320 and B737 aircraft.

Conclusions: in the world market of civil aircraft there is a rather tough and uncompromising struggle, which is called competition. The market itself is quite clearly divided: in the field of long-haul aircraft, it is dominated by the Boeing and Airbus corporations, which are unlikely to allow other players to enter it. Those striving to occupy some small niche on it are sent letters of recommendation from top officials with an urgent recommendation to buy Western aircraft, and first try themselves at a smaller level. Such a recommendation was given to Russia several years ago, after which we focused on the projects of the regional SSJ 100 and An-148, as well as the MC21 short-medium haul aircraft.

In the regional aircraft market, we will have to compete primarily with Embraer and Bombardier, which will soon be joined by Chinese and Japanese manufacturers. Quite a lot of materials have already been published in the press regarding the projects of the SSJ 100, An-148 and MS-21 aircraft. The developers still do not always meet the promised deadlines, but they are trying to guarantee a sufficiently high technical level of the aircraft. However, there is still some feeling of annoyance: why did our developers choose a capacity of 75-130 seats for the SSJ 100 aircraft, when foreign manufacturers have long been planning the production of much larger regional aircraft (up to 149 seats). This is due to the fact that in the international market the demand for aircraft with a capacity of up to 100 seats has long fallen. Why produce deliberately unprofitable aircraft? Perhaps a compromise will still be found when Russia and Ukraine can reasonably divide this capacity range between themselves, leaving the Ukrainian An-148 aircraft a niche for 70–88 seats, and the Superjet for 100–130 seats.

A competitor for our promising MS-21 aircraft is also planned. As the line between regional and short-medium haul aircraft is slowly blurring, the Boeing and Airbus corporations usually create a line of aircraft models of various capacities at once. A few years ago, the B737-600 aircraft (110 passenger seats) lost in a tender to the Brazilian Embraer 190/195 aircraft (114–122 seats). However, after 2015–2018 Boeing Corporation will already be freed from the problems of creating the B787 aircraft and, in order not to lose the market, intends to create a new aircraft to replace the B737 aircraft. At the same time, Boeing plans to develop two aircraft models: one for 110–130 seats, the other for larger capacity. The Airbus corporation is also preparing its own project in this class of aircraft.

But there is another version of the development of events. As has already happened in the class of long-haul aircraft, Russia may be offered to participate in the development of these projects together with Boeing or Airbus. What then? Can we really agree again and help design, blow through, cast titanium blanks for individual units, etc.? Or maybe it will help us gain the necessary experience in order to further revive our aviation industry and enter the international aviation market? This is the way China is trying to master now.

We really have a lot to learn from the world's leading aviation corporations, which have tremendous experience in conquering the market. Here are just a few features that characterize the work and reasons for the success of the Boeing and Airbus corporations:
International organizational structure of the corporation.
Mandatory international cooperation in the development and construction of aircraft, which allows sharing economic risks and ensuring guaranteed mutual access of project participants to the markets.
Availability of a stable team of highly qualified employees.
The presence of a line of modern aircraft, while this line usually follows a certain sequence of technological innovations.
High technical level of aircraft (performance characteristics, reliability, safety, comfort, design and cabin equipment).
Aircraft compliance with international environmental requirements (noise level, environmental pollution).
Multi-stage crew and technical training system. personnel (usually for a family of aircraft of the same type, allowing pilots to move from one aircraft to another without retraining).
Security Maintenance aircraft around the world.

We have already lost much of what is listed here, and we need to recreate it anew, and this requires both time and considerable funds. Whether we are ready for a new breakthrough or not, the coming years will show.

• Boeing's forecast for the next 20 years reflects a 3.5 percent increase in aircraft demand compared to 2014
• Narrow-body and small/medium wide-body aircraft markets lead growth in terms of number and total value of aircraft

Boeing forecasts a need for 38,050 new aircraft over the next 20 years, up 3.5 percent from last year's forecast. The company today released its Current Market Outlook, estimating the total cost of new aircraft needed at $5.6 trillion.

"The commercial aircraft market continues to be strong and stable," said Randy Tinseth, vice president of marketing for Boeing Commercial Airplanes. In the future, we expect further market growth and strong demand for new aircraft.”

By the end of the forecast period, the civil aircraft fleet will double, from 21,600 in 2014 to 43,560 in 2034. Growth will be driven by 58 percent of the 38,050 aircraft delivered during the period. Passenger traffic growth will continue and will be about 4.9 percent annually, almost reaching the historical trend of 5 percent. Over 7 billion passengers will be transported by the end of the forecast period. Air cargo will increase by approximately 4.7 per cent annually.

The single-aisle aircraft market continues to lead the growth rate and, as the largest segment, will require 26,730 aircraft over the next two decades. These aircraft are the backbone of the global airline fleet, carrying up to 75 percent of passengers on over 70 percent of routes. civil aviation. The growth of this segment is due to the growth of low-cost airlines and traditional airlines in emerging markets.

“The Boeing 737-800 and the upcoming 737 MAX 8 are at the forefront of the narrow-body aircraft segment,” said Tinseth. “These aircraft provide customers with the highest fuel efficiency, regularity and performance in the class.”

About 35 percent of narrow-body aircraft will be operated by low-cost airlines, Thinset added: “Low-cost airlines will need aircraft that combine the highest cost-effectiveness with the highest potential for profit. With a 20 percent reduction in fuel consumption, the 737 MAX 200 will be the ideal aircraft for them.”

Boeing forecasts that the wide-body segment of the market will require 8,830 new aircraft. First of all, small wide-body vessels with a passenger capacity of 200 to 300 seats, such as 787-8 and 787-9 Dreamliner, will be in demand. This year's forecast continues to reflect a shift in demand from very large aircraft towards economical new twin-engine aircraft such as the 787 and the new 777X.

While much of the demand for new aircraft is still driven by the growth of airlines, replacements will require a large number of aging ships, the number of which is constantly growing. Every year, 2 to 3 percent of the operated fleet will need to be renewed.

“The 737 MAX, 777 and 787 are in the perfect position to take advantage of this wave of replacements,” says Tinseth.

The cargo market continues to strengthen and will require around 920 new aircraft over the 20 years that the forecast covers.

“We have seen a strong growth in the air cargo market over the past two years and we expect this market to continue to grow,” said Tinseth. “This is great news for our production of cargo aircraft, including the 767, 777 and 747-8.”

Boeing's annual market forecasts have the longest history and are the most comprehensive analysis of the aviation industry. The full report is available at www.boeing.com/cmo.

Deliveries of new aircraft: 2015-2034

In the next two decades, the Asian market, including China, will lead in terms of total shipments.

After the collapse Soviet Union in the production of trunk passenger liners(i.e. aircraft with a capacity of 150 people and a maximum flight range of more than 4000–5000 km) an American-European duopoly has developed: the market has been divided by Boeing and Airbus (in Russia, aircraft of the same dimension are produced - Tu-204 and Il-96, but production is of a single nature for state needs). The same concentration occurred in the production of regional jet airliners (with a capacity of up to 100 people and a maximum flight range of less than 4,000 km): by the beginning of the 2000s, there were only two companies producing such aircraft in a truly mass-produced manner - the Canadian Bombardier and the Brazilian Embraer (in Russia and in Ukraine there is, or rather, a small-scale production of an aircraft of this class An-148 vegetates). It was in the regional segment that the countries that wanted to enter the narrow circle of manufacturers of jet passenger aircraft first illuminated themselves: Russia with the Sukhoi Superjet project, China with the ARJ-21 aircraft and Japan with the Mitsubishi Regional Jet. But the long-haul aircraft market is much more capacious and profitable, and at the turn of the 2010s. projects in this segment (similar to the Boeing 737 and A319/320/321) were announced by three more players: Russia with the MS-21 project of the Irkut corporation, China with the C919 aircraft of the COMAC company and the Canadian Bombardier, whose new CSeries airliner is approaching in terms of passenger capacity " from below" to the shortest versions of the Boeing 737 and to the European A319.

Giants Predictions

Aircraft corporations regularly publish 20-year forecasts for the passenger aircraft and transportation market - few in the industry present such long-term forecasts to the public. At the same time, the demand for specific models is not indicated - the breakdown is by class of airliners. Forecasts are made on the basis of thorough and long-term marketing and economic research, but, of course, they cannot foresee such events that once hit the market hard, like the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks in the United States or the global financial crisis of 2007-2008. As follows from the latest (published in autumn 2014) Boeing forecast, by 2033, 36,770 mainline airliners will be produced, and their global fleet will increase from 20,910 aircraft in 2013 to 42,180 in 2033. trillion (nearly a third of US GDP or about three times Russia's GDP in 2014). Of the 25,680 aircraft produced over the forecast twenty years, i.e., almost 70%, according to the Boeing classification, they will be “long-haul aircraft with a single aisle” (Boeing 737, A320, MS-21 and C919), and in value terms their share will be about 48%. Regional aircraft, to which Boeing includes the Sukhoi Superjet, will be produced 2,490 units, but their monetary share will be less than 2%, or about $100 billion. North America, Latin America, Europe, the Asia-Pacific region, the Middle East and Africa, will amount to 1330 aircraft worth $150 billion by 2033 (or 3% of the entire world market). MC-21 type aircraft in the former USSR will require 990, and regional airliners - 160.

Why "Tu" and "Il" disappeared

AT best years the Soviet aviation industry produced up to 150 passenger jets per year. In 1991, the last year of the existence of the USSR, 37 Tu-154s, six Il-86s, one Il-96, two Tu-204s and 13 Yak-42s were produced, that is, a total of 59 jet airliners, while EADS (now Airbus) produced about 170 and Boeing about 600 passenger aircraft. Throughout the 90s. in the West, there were processes of consolidation of the aviation industry (as a result of which only Boeing remained in the United States instead of three aircraft manufacturers), while all Soviet design bureaus and factories were privatized (or allocated to state enterprises) separately. After the collapse of the USSR, the civil aviation industry in Russia found itself in a state of collapse, which was caused by a combination of many factors: a severe economic crisis, a lack of new projects, a lack of modern maintenance and financial support for aircraft sales, a large excess fleet formed due to the collapse of air travel, which was actually free for airlines machines. Beginning in 2001, the state began to look for forms of industry consolidation, which ended only in the second half of this decade with the creation of the UAC. At the same time, there was a difficult process of integration "from below", the core of which was the two surviving companies that had funds from the sale of fighters to China and India - Sukhoi and Irkut. It is not surprising that these two companies put forward projects for new civil aircraft - the Sukhoi Superjet, which won the competition in 2002 for the creation of a regional aircraft, and the MS-21, the government decree on the creation of which was issued in 2010. At the same time, neither the Tu-204, of which about 80 units were produced in total, neither the IL-96 (more than 20) never became truly serial due to the lack of introduction in the 90s - early 2000s. their engines, very weak sales support, and the IL-96 also because of the four-engine, less economical than Western competitors, scheme. At the same time, Boeing and Airbus did not sit idly by on the Russian market during the 2000s. occupied a dominant position on it as the mass decommissioning of Soviet aircraft. No less important is the issue of international cooperation. The European EADS in the mid-2000s was the closest to becoming the main partner of the Russian aviation industry: it became the owner of a 10% stake in Irkut, and the Russian bank VTB bought a 5% stake in EADS on the market. However, decisive steps towards partnership did not follow - for various, including political, reasons.

Airbus' 20-year forecast, released at the Le Bourget air show in June, is not radically different from Boeing's forecast, but is more moderate. The volume of sales until 2034 will be $4.9 trillion, total produced new liners - 32,585 cars (12% lower than Boeing), the number of cars with one pass for passengers - 22,927, and in terms of cost - 55%. There is, however, a notable difference: Airbus forecasts demand for ultra-large aircraft (such as the A380 and Boeing 747) at 1,550, while Boeing believes only 620 will find buyers. This is not surprising, since the largest and most modern aircraft of this type - the A380 - is produced by Airbus, while Boeing abandoned the development of a machine of this dimension in favor of a radical modernization of the Boeing 747. world will increase to 91 from the current 47 (from Russia now, and in 20 years only the Moscow air hub will represent them), namely, the A380 concept is focused on transportation between them.

Share for Sukhoi Superjet

Canadian Bombardier's forecast published last year focuses on aircraft of the size it produces. The company's marketers believe that by 2033 the demand for liners from 100 to 149 seats (which includes short versions of the Boeing 737 and A319, as well as the CSeries airliner being developed by the Canadian company) will amount to 7100 units, or $ 465 billion in monetary terms. Embraer, in its forecast published at Le Bourget, expects delivery by 2034 of 6,350 jet aircraft with a capacity of 70 to 130 seats, including 380 in Russia and the CIS countries.

Thus, all forecasts of global aircraft manufacturers provide for a significant market niche for the Sukhoi Superjet. The truly serial production of this aircraft (37 units produced) that unfolded last year led to the fact that it took about 10% of the total sales of jet regional airliners.

View from Russia

A representative of Sukhoi Civil Aircraft said that, according to the company's forecasts, for the period 2015-2034. the capacity of the market for cars with a capacity of 91–120 seats will be 2600 units, and the share of SSJ will be 14%, i.e. 364 units.

However, much more ambitious is the MS-21 project, which, like the Chinese C919, is aimed at the most capacious niche of the world market, where it will face much tougher competition from Boeing and Airbus, which will be brought to the market as early as 2016-2017. its new modifications Boeing 737MAX and A320neo, equipped with new highly efficient engines. The MS-21 will have the same engine as the A320neo, but it will be the first airliner with a composite (black) wing and will be equipped with a large number of the latest innovative systems, only the first flight is planned in 2016 (the Sukhoi Superjet has from the first test flight to the first commercial took about four years).

Oleg Panteleev, executive director of the Aviaport agency, believes that the feasibility of sales plans Russian aircraft new types is determined by three factors. Firstly, the production capabilities of the assembly sites - and there are no risks here. Secondly, the stability of cooperation in the supply of components - and the Russian aviation industry does not control this risk in the event of an aggravation of the international situation. Thirdly, the possibility of advancing to the world market - this issue is also not controlled by the aviation industry, but if the existing export support policy is maintained, the situation will look manageable.

General characteristics of the world market

Growth prospects for the civil aviation market are highly dependent on rising aviation fuel prices and the average annual growth rate of the global economy and trade. With an average annual growth rate of the world economy in 2007-2025. at the level of 3.1% per year, the average annual growth in the volume of air passenger transportation for the same period will be 4.9%, and cargo transportation - 6.1%. Then, according to the predictive estimates of the Boeing Co., the volume of the market for new civil aircraft in 2007-2025. will be about 2.6-2.8 trillion. USD In the period up to 2025, airlines will need approx. 28,600 new passenger and cargo aircraft. The global fleet of civil aircraft will more than double from 17,330 aircraft (2005) to about 36,000 (2025). Basically, these will be narrow-body (100-240 passengers) and wide-body (200-400 passengers) aircraft. 9,580 new aircraft will replace less efficient aircraft being withdrawn from the company's fleets. Most of them will be decommissioned, but 2220 passenger liners will be converted into cargo aircraft. In addition, airlines will receive 770 new cargo aircraft.

Aircraft in this segment, such as the Boeing 787 and Boeing 777, will enable airlines to grow successfully by operating more flights to more airports to meet passenger demand. Boeing-747 class and larger aircraft will be actively used on routes connecting Asian countries with other regions, as well as on transatlantic routes. The market is forecast to have strong market demand for high-capacity cargo aircraft due to their high fuel economy, reliability, range and excellent load factor performance.

By 2015, the number of 30-60-seat aircraft operated in the world will slightly exceed the 2000 units available in 2005, and by 2025 it will amount to 2500 units. At the same time, the number of cars with 61-90 seats will increase from the current 700 to 1,700 in 2015 and 3,300 in 2025. Demand for cars with a capacity of 91 to 120 passengers will expand at the fastest pace. If in 2005 there were just over 700 of them in the world's airlines, then by 2015 the fleet of such aircraft will increase to 2500, and by 2025 - up to 3800 units. In total, by 2025, 7,950 aircraft with a capacity of 30-120 passengers will be sold in the world for about $180 billion.

The business jet market is growing rapidly and will continue to expand in the medium term. In 2005, 737 business aircraft were sold worldwide, in 2006 850 were delivered, and in 2007 (according to preliminary estimates) the expansion of sales approached the level of 1000 aircraft. For the period 2008-2010. the total volume of orders is estimated at the level of 3.1-3.4 thousand aircraft. The main customers will be North American companies (61% of orders), which should upgrade their fleet of business jets by 23%. Steady demand expected from European countries, and it will expand as a result of the growth in incomes of the population of Russia and the states of Eastern Europe. By 2011-2012 a jump (up to 50% compared to the current level) of orders from Asia, Africa and the Middle East is predicted.

In total, between 2007 and 2025, about 24,000 business class aircraft will be produced worldwide.

According to Boeing Co. forecast, by 2026 airlines will acquire:

3,700 regional jets (less than 90 seats);

17,650 narrow-body aircraft (90-240 passengers in a two-class configuration);

6290 wide-body aircraft (200-400 passengers with a three-class layout);

960 Boeing-747 class aircraft and larger capacity (over 400 passengers in a three-class layout).

Geography of world production and consumption

The global civil aviation market is currently provided mainly by the products of four companies: the long-haul aircraft market is the area of ​​interest for Boeing (USA) and Airbus (EU), and the vast majority of deliveries of regional aircraft are provided by Bombardier (Canada), Embraer (Brazil) and ATR ( Italy). Positions in the indicated market of other aircraft manufacturing enterprises of the world, including Russian ones, at the moment can be characterized as starting ones.

In 2006, the world leaders in the civil aviation industry produced ~820 mainline and ~250 regional aircraft of all types.

The largest market in the period 2006-2025. will be the countries of the Asia-Pacific region - 36% of the total amount of 2.8 trillion. dollars, which is due to the significant demand for wide-body airliners in the region. Airlines from North America will account for 28% of purchases, Europe - 24%. The remaining 12% comes from customers in Latin America, the Middle East and Africa.

An additional operational factor for the Asian market compared to the American and Western European ones is the presence of large passenger flows with a short length of air lines. With a large market volume, this feature can lead to the appearance of modifications or types of aircraft designed specifically for the countries of the Asia-Pacific region.

The number of aircraft manufacturing countries is expected to expand. The traditional players in the long-haul aircraft market, the European aviation industry, the American Boeing Corporation, will face competition from Russian (UAC), Asian manufacturers (AVIC-I, Mitsubishi HI), as well as long-haul aircraft projects created by companies that are traditional representatives of the regional and business markets. aviation (by Bombardier and Embraer). The market for jet regional aircraft will also acquire a multipolar supply due to falling into the sphere of interests of the aviation industry of developing countries. In addition to the traditional players represented by Embraer and Bombardier, which currently share the market almost on parity, the Russian SSJ-100 and the Chinese ARJ-21 may enter the market in the near future.

New products and technologies

The main trends in the technological development of the civil aircraft industry for the period up to 2025 include the following areas:

development of environmentally friendly power plants (providing a margin of 15 EPNdB in terms of noise, as well as a 20% reduction in emissions of harmful substances);

improvement of the consumption characteristics of civil aviation aircraft (by an average of 20%);

improvement of the aerodynamics of the airframe (search for alternative layouts, implementation of the concept of the carrier fuselage);

implementation of the concept of a fully electric aircraft (development of engines with an integrated electric generator, electrical control systems for aerodynamic surfaces, an autonomous air conditioning system, electric mechanisms for retracting and retracting the landing gear, restandardization of the onboard electrical system);

"black plane" - a constructive and technological solution to the problems of manufacturing an aircraft structure from light composite materials (for example, with carbon reinforcement);

the use of nanotechnologies to control the boundary layer, solve problems of increasing the strength of structures (nanomaterials), interactive diagnostics and taking readings of pressure, temperature, deformations, etc. (nanosensors);

global implementation of digital flight and navigation aids using satellite navigation systems.