Boeing Market Forecast. Russian aviation market Civil aviation market in the world

00:21 - REGNUM Revival of the military aviation industry

2014 was a record year for the Russian Air Force - pilots received 108 different aircraft at their disposal. In 2015, the pace of deliveries should remain at about the same level or slightly increase. In total, taking into account exports, at least 124 military aircraft were built. The number of helicopters produced is growing more slowly, in 2013 and 2014 approximately 300 helicopters were produced each. As for civil aircraft construction, the results here are noticeably more modest - 43 aircraft were produced, of which 38 aircraft were delivered to customers, and the rest will be delivered in 2015.

Is it a lot or a little? For this, it is necessary to dwell in more detail on each category of aviation products.

Military aircraft construction

In 2014, the Russian Air Force received 24 Su-35S multi-role fighters, 21 Su-30SM multi-role fighters, 8 Su-30M2 fighters, 18 Su-34 front-line bombers, 10 Mig-29K/KUB carrier-based fighters, 20 Yak-130 combat training aircraft , surveillance aircraft Tu-214ON, four passenger aircraft An-148-100E, two cargo-passenger aircraft An-140-100. All of these aircraft meet modern requirements, many of them (especially the Su-30) are a huge success abroad. As already mentioned, the total number of military aircraft produced was at least 124 pieces (the number of aircraft delivered abroad could not be accurately determined, so the number could be more - up to 150). Let's compare this figure with the number of combat aircraft produced in the 80s of the USSR, when the aviation industry was really strong. From 1983 to 1990, an average of 175 aircraft were produced each year, of which 110 were military. That is, the result achieved in 2014 is fully consistent with Soviet production rates, and this despite the fact that each new model an aircraft (especially a military one) costs much more than the previous one and takes more time to build.

And one more interesting point - today the Russian Federation began to take first place in the world in the production of combat aircraft, overtaking both China (using Russian engines on its aircraft) and the United States (no more than 100 aircraft in 2014). The United States is being let down by the development of the 5th generation F-35 fighter, which is not going as smoothly as we would like. According to preliminary information, over the next 5 years, the US will produce 569 aircraft - 113 per year, along with export aircraft.

As for the prospects of the Russian Federation, in two years fighters of the 5th generation PAK FA will go into mass production. Within the framework of the State Armament Program for 2011-2020, the rate of production of aircraft should remain approximately at the same level as in 2014. Work has begun on the creation of a promising strategic bomber PAK DA and a military transport aircraft PAK TA.

one more the most important direction development of the Air Force is the modernization of the existing fleet. Already in 2015, 5 upgraded Tu-160 and 9 Tu-22M3M strategic bombers will be received. These aircraft can now carry high-precision non-nuclear cruise and anti-ship missiles. By 2020, the Russian Air Force should have at least 700 modernized aircraft (while maintaining the pace taken).

Civil aircraft construction

Things are not so rosy here. The main passenger aircraft of domestic production is the short-haul Sukhoi Superjet 100. It was produced in the amount of 34 pieces. With a stretch to civil aviation can also be attributed transport aircraft, purchased by law enforcement agencies - another 9 An-148, An-140, Il-76 and Tu-214. A total of 43 cars. In the 80s, 60-70 civil aircraft were produced in the USSR every year. But then there was the production of wide-body aircraft, the same Il-86/96. Now the model range is limited to only one single SSJ-100, the prospects for which on the market are not yet entirely clear. The MS-21, a medium-haul aircraft from the UAC, is under development. There was information about the possible development of a wide-body aircraft project jointly with China. In any case, we are still very far from Europeans and Americans - the world market is still almost completely divided between two giants - Airbus and Boeing. In 2013, the former delivered 626 aircraft, and the latter 648. The annual production of our UAC aircraft is only 6.8% of the Airbus output.

Helicopters

Let's get back to the positive. In 2014, the Russian Helicopters holding produced a little over 300 aircraft, of which more than 100 were produced under the State Defense Order. In the USSR of the 80s, the production of helicopters was approximately 380 pieces per year - a larger figure, but not dramatically, especially considering the reduction of the country itself and the production of more expensive and modern machines. In addition, there is the production of a certain number of rotorcraft outside of Russian Helicopters - up to 50 more helicopters per year. In world sales, Russian Helicopters accounts for 14%. The line of the legendary Mi-8/17 is especially popular, which even the Pentagon still buys for the Afghan army. The production of attack helicopters Ka-52, Mi-28 and Mi-35 is more than 70 pieces per year - the first place in the world.

conclusions

1. We are witnessing the revival of the Russian military aviation industry. Not only have Soviet production rates been achieved, but even the United States has been left behind.

2. Although the civil aviation industry began to revive (a few years ago there was no production of 20 aircraft a year), it is still negligible on a global scale. The model range is extremely scarce and does not meet the needs of the Russian Federation. The main development prospect is cooperation with China, which will allow us to get a huge Asian market.

3. In the helicopter industry, progress is very good. At the same time, it is worth noting that even in the worst years, the production of helicopters rarely fell below 100 units per year. The Mi-8/17 line has always been popular abroad.

The aviation industry as an industry was formed in the early twentieth century. By 1910-12, in many countries there were several enterprises engaged in the production aircraft. Interest in the industry arose during the time of world wars, in particular, the Second World War, when air supremacy became one of the determining factors in a particular battle. After 1945, the industry continued to grow rapidly, during this period, paying more attention to civil aviation. By the end of the 80s, the aviation industry approached the modern model and then practically did not change its appearance. Currently, several leading countries of the aviation industry have formed in this sector, holding their positions.

Modern leaders - what are their features

Currently, the world leadership in the aviation industry belongs to several states, including: the USA, Russia, the EU and Brazil. These countries have the largest number factories and plants operating in this industry. Some companies within the state can afford to produce single parts, but all of them eventually go to larger enterprises that form the basis of the national aircraft industry.

The peculiarities of the leading companies in the leading countries of the aviation industry is the fact that they all cooperate with the state. If we are talking about civil aviation, then this is servicing major carriers, national flights, and if we are talking about military aviation, it is meeting the needs of the armed forces.

Leading companies in the civil aviation industry

Civil aircraft industry is the most costly group, which includes only large enterprises with a narrow specialization of the national or international level.

In the civil aircraft industry today, two large corporations are leading:

• Boeing (American company);
• Airbus (United Corporation of the EU);
• United Aviation Corporation of Russia.

There are no enterprises of similar scale in other countries. A key feature of these companies is the dispersal of production throughout the country or several countries (EU). This approach allows you to sharpen production at one plant for the production of one part, drag factories to resources and, therefore, minimize production costs. In addition, these companies were able to appear only thanks to the merger of the giants. So, for example, the UAC includes several large enterprises "Su", "Mig", "Il", "Tu", "Yak", focused on general production.

Other major aviation companies in the world are: Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, United Technologies, Textron (USA).

China is likely to become one of the leading aircraft manufacturers in the near future, but today its production cannot yet compete with the world's giants.

Military aviation

In the military sector, the leaders of the aviation industry look different. The following brands fall into this category:

• Su (made in Russia);
• Mig (Russia);
• Panavia Tornado (Germany);
• Eurofighter Typhoon (produced by the European Union);
• Boeing (combined US production).

In this sector, it is rather difficult to determine leadership between brands, since companies producing such equipment are reluctant to advertise their own sales. However, we can say with confidence that in this sector the top three remain unchanged: the US, the European Union and Russia. Interesting developments in this industry also belong to Israel, Canada, China and some other countries, but they are produced in a much more modest volume.

Dear colleagues!

On behalf of the United Aircraft Corporation, we present a long-term forecast for the development of the civil commercial segment. This is an important event for us, because the expectations of the market, the vector of direction and the development of airlines are the message for us that we are trying to take into account when creating a line of aircraft.

UAC in the current period of time is going through a period of formation and strengthening in the market. You know that aircrafts in almost all segments from 30 seats have appeared in our product line. We understand that in order to occupy a worthy niche in the civil aviation market, it is extremely necessary and necessary to be competitive not only within Russian Federation but also in the foreign market.

We try to take into account the requirements of airlines, their expectations, not only in the appearance of aircraft, but in their technical specifications. The total market size until 2035 is estimated at about 6 trillion dollars, 42,000 aircraft dimension from 30 seats. And as I said, UAC currently has projects in almost all directions, with varying degrees of readiness.

First of all, this is the Sukhoi SuperJet 100. Now about 100 aircraft have been delivered, which are operated in Russia, Europe, Latin America, South-East Asia. Yesterday STLC under the Sukhoi SuperJet 100 program. For us it is extremely significant event, as it plans to revive regional traffic in southern Russia based at Rostov airport. We will also sign to increase the fleet of aircraft for the period 2020-2021 in addition to those that Azimuth will receive under the contract in 2017-2018 - this is 8 aircraft.

In the narrow-body aircraft segment, which is the most competitive market, you know that we have the MS-21 project. The aircraft made its first flight in May of this year, and is now undergoing flight and certification tests. The first deliveries will be in 2019, according to our expectations, this is a worthy competitor, which will take its rightful place in the fleet of narrow-body aircraft. Of the large aircraft, we have a project with COMAC - this is ShFDMS. We have registered a joint venture. Active work is underway with Chinese partners, the technical appearance of this aircraft, its characteristics and the family of ShFDMS aircraft (wide-body long-haul aircraft) have been agreed. A joint venture has been registered, active work is underway with Chinese partners, the technical appearance of the aircraft, characteristics, family are being coordinated, and now we are at the stage of the beginning of preliminary design.

In the segment of regional aircraft - turboprop Il-114. That year, as you know, a decision was made to launch the Il-114-300 program. The first flight of the aircraft is expected in 2018, deliveries in 2021. Within the framework of MAKS there will be a second conference with operators, I hope that the aircraft will fully meet the expectations of regional companies and we will try to take into account their requirements.

That's all I wanted to say. I give the floor to Tamara Kakushadze, Vice President for Marketing " civil aircraft Dry".

Thank you for your attention!

Good afternoon, dear colleagues!

Literally an hour later. We are not afraid, even interested, if you can compare our assessment with their assessment. This is a kind of professional experience for our team of marketers who present the UAC forecast.

This year is a jubilee for UAC. We have been in existence for 10 years. We believe that we have achieved quite significant success. Starting from the fact that we have retained and developed the competence to create civil passenger aircraft. We have more than 100 SSJ 100 aircraft in operation. MS-21 has more than 175 firm orders at the moment, while still at the certification testing stage.

Also, as Mr. Masalov said, this year we signed an agreement and opened a joint venture with the Chinese aircraft manufacturing corporation COMAC in China for the full-scale launch of a program to create a wide-body family.

Over these 10 years, we have really been actively improving and developing the base and tools for creating a high-quality, sufficiently detailed and qualified market overview, its long-term forecast, precisely so that our strategic objectives, which are set within the product line, meet the market requirements that we look forward to.

I'll start with an overview of the Russian market. In terms of the volume of the transportation market, today we occupy the 7th place in the world. We believe that by 2036 the passenger turnover of Russian airlines will grow almost 2.5 times and reach almost 500 billion passenger kilometers. At the same time, we estimate the aggregate average annual growth rate at 4.1%, which is slightly below the global average. Over the next 20 years, according to our forecast Russian airlines will receive, based on their needs, about 1,170 new aircraft.

The existing firm orders that airlines are currently placing for various products in various categories cover about 47% of expected future demand. It should be noted that to the greatest extent this demand is covered in groups of narrow-body aircraft with a dimension of more than 120 seats. It's somewhere around 57%. Among this order, a significant share is occupied by orders for the MS-21-300 aircraft.

We also predict high demand in the segment of aircraft with a capacity of 60-120 seats, somewhere around 15% of the total demand, which is above the global average. This is primarily due to the fact that active work is currently underway, including with state support, to develop effective methods for stimulating sales, including the introduction of effective operating leasing. We are actively working with STLC to ensure that the proposals that we form are interesting and attractive to airlines.

CIS countries. We continue to classify certain countries of the region in this format, because, according to our assessment, the general problems of socio-economic development, close economic, cultural, and interpersonal ties between our countries determine precisely similar trends. Actually, mutual dependence, including that affecting the development of the market passenger traffic. According to our estimates, the volume of passenger air transportation by 2036 in the CIS countries will increase by 2.5 times. At the same time, in the global passenger turnover, passenger transportation of the countries of the CIS region is less than 1%.

We believe that, taking into account the pace of development, taking into account the stabilization of population migration, the average annual growth rate of passenger traffic in the region as a whole over 20 years will be about 4.6%. demand for new passenger aircraft in this region is approximately estimated at 260 new aircraft. Available orders currently placed cover about 18% of the estimated demand. But it should be noted that in countries this region the most active are buyers of the secondary market, where they purchase more than half of their total demand. This was taken into account in our forecast, therefore, at first glance, it may seem modest to you, but we see such predictive indicators specifically for new equipment.

China. The next most interesting for us is the Chinese market. During the forecast period, China, according to our assessment and according to the assessment of global institutions, will demonstrate the highest dynamics of development, including the dynamics of the development of passenger traffic. This will ensure that China moves from the 4th position, from the regions we are considering, to the 3rd position, while yielding only to the countries in the aggregate of the Asia-Pacific region and Europe, and ahead of North America and all other regions combined in 20 years. .

We expect passenger traffic in China to increase by more than 3.3 times over the next 20 years. Based on compound annual growth rates, we see the Chinese market could be over 6%, leading to the valuation we're showing. In 20 years, the Chinese market will require more than 7,000 aircraft. This is equivalent to $1 trillion if we evaluate this demand at catalog prices. If we talk about the portfolio of orders that Chinese airlines already have, then it covers only 19% of future demand in this market. And there is something to fight for. We estimate that the largest demand is expected in the segment of narrow-body aircraft with a capacity of more than 120 seats. At the moment, it is covered by 17% of orders, these are mostly Boeing and Airbus, as well as orders for the national Chinese project C919. We believe that, based on our current relationships and our potential development with China, we can claim a significant share in this market for the MS-21 aircraft.

Asian-Pacific area. If we talk about the Asia-Pacific region as a whole, but without China, it can be noted that, despite the relatively small excess of passenger turnover growth rates over the world average, the Asia-Pacific region will, in the forecast, take practically leading positions in the global passenger turnover market. First of all, these are: India, Malaysia, Indonesia. These countries provide the main drivers for future development, make the Asia-Pacific region the most interesting market for all manufacturers, which can transform the structure of the world park in the future.

In terms of global passenger traffic, according to our estimates, the Asia-Pacific region will occupy almost 20% of global passenger traffic by 2036. According to UAC, the total demand for new passenger aircraft in this market will be more than 8,600 units. In this case, the emphasis will be on aircraft larger capacity. Although, if we talk about the structure of orders, at the moment, based on our forecast, the current portfolio of orders already covers 43% of the expected demand. One such significant distinguishing feature of this market should be considered that the demand for wide-body aircraft in this region will also stand out in the overall global demand, according to our estimates, it amounted to about 23%, which is slightly more than the global average.

Let's move on to the European market. For the forecast period, the European market for passenger transportation will retain its leading position in the world ranking, but it will experience quite serious competition from dynamically developing economies. First of all, this will concern long-haul transportation and the wide-body fleet. At the same time, passenger traffic will almost double. The compound annual growth rate will be 3.5%. This is lower than the world average, but this indicates that the European market has already reached a fairly serious saturation in terms of demand. Its current fleet is sizable to handle large volumes of traffic. At the same time, the share of Europe in the global passenger fleet will slightly decrease from 23% in 2016, by 2036 it will be about 19%.

European airlines are expected to purchase over 8,600 aircraft over the next 20 years. This forecast takes into account the peculiarity that the European region is the leader in the ranking of donors of the secondary market. It is renewing its fleet at an accelerated pace, transferring older aircraft to other regions. If we talk about the current portfolio of orders, it can be noted that in none of the segments in terms of capacity, the current portfolio of orders covers demand by more than 30%. Naturally, in the same region, even visually clear, there is a high share of the development of narrow-body parks. The largest share is precisely narrow-body aircraft with a capacity of more than 140 seats.

Latin America. According to our estimates, in the forecast period, the growth rate of passenger traffic in Latin America will be significantly higher than the global one, but the initially modest indicators of the total GDP in this region will rather lead to maintaining a significant distance in the total volume of passenger traffic relative to the leading regions in terms of passenger traffic.

At the same time, starting from a currently small base, we expect a threefold increase in passenger traffic at a compound annual growth rate of volumes passenger air transportation about 5.7%. But its share in the world passenger transportation market will not exceed 6.5% in 20 years. The total demand for new passenger aircraft is estimated at 3,400 aircraft. Of the announced firm orders for new aircraft, only 29% of our projected demand is covered. We expect a record high share of deliveries in the segment of narrow-body aircraft with a capacity of 120 or more seats.

Near East. Also an interesting market for UAC. Along with China and Latin America, it will significantly outpace other regions of the world in terms of growth in passenger turnover, but it is small in terms of population and has a small aggregate GDP on a global scale, which will not allow narrowing the distance between the leaders and this region.

We expect passenger traffic to grow almost 3.2 times by 2036, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 6%. The share of the region in the total volume of passenger traffic will grow from 9.5% in 2016 to 12%. This is a big jump. It should be noted that we see more than half of new aircraft deliveries in the wide-body segment. Due to this, the share will increase to a greater extent. At the same time, 2/3 of these deliveries are expected in the segment of the group of wide-body aircraft, the capacity of which is above 320 seats. It can be said that the airlines of the region will provide up to 60% of the total global demand for these super-large aircraft.

North America. The air transportation market of the countries of the region will develop, follow the general world trends, but, taking into account the redistribution of the activity of the global economy, it will gradually lose its positions. At the turn of 2036, this market will give way not only to Europe, but also to China and the Asia-Pacific region. At the same time, the volume of passenger air transportation, according to our expectations, will almost double, with an average annual growth rate of 2.7 times.

A low rate, almost like in Europe, but this is due to the fact that a highly saturated market, initially a large current fleet structure, a fairly high rate of market saturation already now. What is important, according to our estimates, the market share of North America in the total world balance will decrease from 24% to 17%, giving way to emerging markets. Feature region - a high share in the expected demand for jet regional aircraft from 60 to 90 seats. This is about 19% of total new aircraft in the region. At that time, according to the general average world indicators, this segment accounts for no more than 6%.

Africa. We note the prospects for the passenger transportation market in Africa. According to the UAC, they will be determined primarily by more than 50% increase in population over the next 20 years. Combined with rather modest figures for economic development region. The region as a whole is highly fragmented. Central and North Africa differ greatly from each other in terms of transportation indicators, in their structure of formation route networks. This introduces certain adjustments, which we took into account in our forecast. As a result, we give to the African market by 2036 the expectation that the volume of passenger traffic will grow by 2.5 times, with a cumulative annual rate of passenger air transportation at the level of global indicators of 4.5-4.6%. The share of the global passenger turnover market will practically not change, for 2016 it is 2.1%, for 2036 - 2.2%. African airlines, through purchases in the secondary aircraft market, will satisfy about 41% of the total demand for passenger aircraft.

This circumstance largely determined the demand for new passenger aircraft, which is presented rather modestly. There are less than 100 aircraft for 20 years. In this situation, contrary to the current fleet structure, we see that the wide-body aircraft market promises to be the most profitable in this region. Let's just say, not by the number of seats, but by the amount of income that will come for manufacturers from the sale of this aircraft. The demand for wide-body aircraft alone is estimated by us over 20 years to be more than 200 units.

In general, if we talk about the structure of the market and demand, which we predict for a 20-year period, it can be noted that the world fleet will almost double and reach 47,000 aircraft. At the same time, it will be significantly updated, to a greater extent due to the fact that part of it will fall on the need to update the current fleet of retiring ships, part on the need associated with the development of air transportation itself.

In the current forecast 20 years, we estimate that in total across all markets, about 42,000 new passenger aircraft will be required. It is worth noting that this demand is influenced by many factors, both demand in the purely global economy and an increase in the world's population. According to national and international organizations, the population in the next 20 years will grow by more than 1.3 billion people, which will be about 20% in growth. Global GDP will grow by more than $50 trillion.

The doubling of the passenger fleet of aircraft will be affected by changes and modernization of the existing infrastructure, offers on the market are all more planes with new performance indicators that will lead to a reduction in the cost of transportation and an increase in the mobility of the population.

In many regions, we expect government support for airlines. There are many national programs that stimulate the development and modernization of ground infrastructure and the development of airline fleets. It is worth noting that we see the largest increase (more than 140%) in the segment of large narrow-body aircraft. This is exactly the class where the proposal for MS-21 falls.

We estimate that the fleet of narrow-body aircraft with a capacity of less than 120 seats will also almost double. As part of the implementation of the wide-body project, we see that the fleet of wide-body aircraft with a capacity of up to 300 seats will increase by more than 70%.

Thank you for your attention.

The transformation of the economy is accompanied by a transition from transnational integration to transcontinental integration, which manifests itself for the world aircraft market in the emergence of prerequisites for the disappearance of such concepts as the "American/European/Russian aviation industry": the capacities of the Eastern European aviation industry are used in the production of American aircraft; the Chinese aircraft manufacturer AVIC cooperates with the European concern Airbus and the American corporation General Electric, etc. Any attempt to close in on a national scale today has no prospects. This determines the primary importance of the influence of global factors on the development of an individual company. Therefore, the modern world civil aircraft market, on the one hand, reflects the main global economic trends of today, but on the other hand, it has its own development specifics.

Trends in the development of the world aircraft industry are simultaneously covered in research by aircraft corporations that have their own research centers, and in research conducted by scientists as part of their activities in scientific institutions. Among the main studies that form the basis of the strategies of aircraft manufacturing corporations are "Global Market Forecast" from Airbus, "Current Market Outlook 20122031" from Boeing, "Market Forecast" from Bombardier, Worldwide Market Forecast 2014-2033 from Japan Aircraft Development Corporation and some other. The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) also regularly publishes the results of its own research (eg "Airplane Outlook"). Partially based on such forecasts, the prospects for the aircraft industry are highlighted in the scientific research of J. Wensvin and A. Wells .S. Sokolova, M.V. Boykova, S.D. Gavrilov and N.A. Gavrilicheva A. Khatypova and T.T. Khalilova, T. Boetsha, T. Vigera and A. Vitmera, Yu. Prikhodko and other authors.

First of all, the existing studies note the transformation of the market structure of the aircraft industry and, accordingly, analyze the strategies of the leading market agents. However, at the same time, certain features are distinguished that characterize changes in the aircraft industry, and the available forecasts for the development of the aircraft industry market are built mainly on the basis of forecasting the demand for aircraft and the study of the factors influencing it, and do not take into account the general direction of socio-economic development as a whole. That is, we can talk about the lack of an integrated approach in the analysis state of the art and changes in the industry, which significantly reduces the reliability and completeness of forecasts. Given this, there is a need to systematize individual manifestations and form a holistic view of changes in the global aircraft manufacturing market. At the same time, the formation of a holistic view of changes in the global aircraft manufacturing market, from our point of view, provides (Fig. 3.4):

firstly, analysis of the structure of the global aircraft manufacturing market, determination of segmentation criteria and main market agents, generalization of the main trends;

secondly, the analysis of external factors influencing the development of the aircraft industry in the context of quantitative and qualitative parameters;

thirdly, the analysis of the behavior of market entities, the definition of business organization methods inherent in market leaders.

Fig.3.4. in Tasks of researching changes in the global aircraft manufacturing market

Segments and structure of the aircraft industry market

The modern structure of the aircraft manufacturing market has a matrix character: on the one hand, it is divided into two sectors - the production of final products and consumer services (spare parts, components, services), on the other hand, each of these sectors is divided into sectors of civil and military products (Figure 3.5).

Several companies can be distinguished in the military aircraft market: Boeing - approximately 22% in the world military aircraft industry in 2011, Lockheed Martin - 21%, Northrop Grumman - 11% (the combined share of US companies in the world military aircraft industry is 54%), Eurofighter - about 11%, EADS - 10%, Dassault - 4% (the total share of European Union companies in the global military aircraft industry is 25%), the share of Russian companies is 20.6%. At the same time, there is the creation of a common Anglo-Saxon transatlantic defense market with a powerful diffusion of military-industrial complexes of countries, and on the territory of the European Union - the formation of a single defense market within the countries included in it.

Fig.3.5. in

Among the specific trends in the development of the military aircraft market, the following can be noted:

In countries that are developing, instead of buying new military aircraft, there is an increase in demand for the modernization of existing weapons with the provision of appropriate operational support;

Economically developed countries are getting rid of technically obsolete aircraft, stimulating its sale by transferring rights to licensed production, assistance in establishing a service infrastructure;

The formation of demand for military aircraft depends on the political and economic climate on the planet and the strategic relationship between countries.

The biggest obstacle to the analysis of the military aircraft market is political bias, which manifests itself in the secrecy or lack of reliable information about the characteristics of the latest technology and contracts. Taking into account these factors, the ratio of the civil and military aircraft market (the total share of the military aircraft industry is about 40% of the world's aircraft industry, and about 20% in the final product), as well as the trend of borrowing civil and military aircraft manufacturing technologies, we are focusing on the study of the civil aircraft industry in the world.

At the same time, in the civil aircraft industry, the output of final products is distributed between aircraft and helicopters as 88-90% / 12-10% in favor of aircraft. Therefore, we will focus our analysis of trends in the aircraft manufacturing market on the example of the civil aircraft manufacturing market and will follow the steps shown in Figure 3.6.

Fig.3.6. in

In order to characterize the global civil aircraft market, given the significant differentiation of aviation technology, it is necessary to consider the criteria for its segmentation.

Most often, the civil aircraft market, depending on the type of fuselage and flight range, is divided into the following segments: the market for medium and long-range wide-body aircraft, the market for medium- and long-haul narrow-body aircraft, the market for regional and local aircraft (Appendix B).

This type of market segmentation is rather conditional and can be modified in different studies - smaller segments are additionally allocated or a larger hem is used.

Also, three criteria are used to segment the aviation market: the type of aircraft power plant (turboprop, jet), the purpose of the aircraft (passenger, transport) and passenger or cargo capacity. Therefore, in order to form a more complete picture of the aircraft manufacturing market, in the future we will use mixed segmentation for market analysis, which is presented in Appendix D.

The development of segments of the civil aircraft market is related to the range of transportation, therefore, we will characterize the distribution of the world passenger traffic by type of aircraft and flight range (see Figure 3.7). The main passenger traffic falls on narrow-body aircraft that operate on routes from 500 to 4500 km, reaching the ASK indicator (Available Seat Kilometers - passenger-seat-kilometers) on lines from 1000 to 3500 km in the amount of 300 to 750 million passenger seats-kilometers. Turboprop aircraft mainly operate on lines up to 1500 km, the same length is the main one for regional aircraft - on lines up to 1500 km, the passenger traffic is more than 100 million passenger seats per kilometer. Passenger transportation on lines of 4000 km or more is carried out mainly by wide-body aircraft. It should be noted that routes up to 4500 km account for about 65% of passenger traffic.

Fig.3.7. in

In terms of passenger capacity with a transportation distance of up to 1000 km, the most common are airliners with a capacity of 120-169 seats, from 1001 to 2000 km - 120-169 and 170-229 seats, from 2001 to 4500 km - 120169, 170-229, 230-309 and 310-399 seats, more than 4500 km - 230-309, 310-399, 400-499 and 500-800 seats (Figure 3.8).

Fig.3.8. in (built from data)

The structure of the fleet of jet passenger aircraft in 2013 is shown in Fig. 3.9-10, from which it can be seen that the largest share in the composition of aircraft is with a significant predominance of aircraft with a capacity of 120-169 seats (51.22%), in second place - aircraft with a capacity of 60-99 seats (19.39%).

Analysis of the dynamics of the fleet of turboprop passenger aircraft in the world for 2000-2013. (Figure 3.11) shows an overall decline in the use of turboprop passenger aircraft, which is most affected by the segment of aircraft with a capacity of 15-39 seats (almost 30% in 2013 compared to 2000) and is slightly offset by the growth of the segment of aircraft with a capacity of more than 60 places (almost 12% in 2013 compared to 2000).

Fig.3.9. in (built from data)

Fig.3.10. in (built from data)

Fig.3.11. in (built from data)

This is due to the appearance in the second half of the 1990s-early 2000s. jet aircraft with less than 50 seats, which are more economical than the corresponding turboprops. As a result, the structure of the market for turboprop passenger aircraft in 2013 (see Figure 3.12) consists of three segments: aircraft with a capacity of 15-39 seats -51.66% (68.62% in 2000), 40-59 seats - 22.56% (23.9 in 2000), more than 60 seats - 25.79% (7.49% in 2000).

Fig.3.12. in (built from data)

Let's analyze the distribution of types of airliners in the regional context (Fig. 3.13 and Fig. 3.14).

Fig.3.13. in (built from data)

As can be seen from Figure 3.13 and Appendix D data, regional jet aircraft most common in North America (53.62% of the total number of regional jets) and Europe (16.91%). Narrow-body jets are most in demand in the Asia-Pacific region (29.11% of the total number of narrow-body jets), North America (28.3%), Europe (22.8%). Wide-body jets are more used for transportation in the Asia-Pacific region (37.18% of the total number of wide-body jets), Europe (20.99%), North America (16.66%).

Turboprop passenger aircraft (figure 3.14 and Annex E data) are generally most operated in the Asia-Pacific region (25.44% of the total number of turboprops). At the same time, North America (30.68% of the total number of turboprop aircraft with a capacity of 15-39 seats) and the Asia-Pacific region (22.61%) are leaders in the local transportation market, in the regional market in the segment of aircraft with a capacity of 40-59 seats, Asia-Pacific Pacific region (23.92% of the total number of turboprop aircraft with a capacity of 40-59 seats) and CIS countries (22.15%), in the segment of aircraft with a capacity of over 60 seats - Asia-Pacific region (32.45% of the total number of turboprop aircraft with a capacity of over 60 seats), Europe (26.8%) and North America (16.61%). To explain this spread of jet and turboprop passenger aircraft, it is necessary to analyze the economic and other specifics of the regions of the world.

Fig.3.14. in (built from data)

Let's analyze the trends in the development of the jet cargo aircraft market (Fig. 3.15).

Between 2000 and 2013, the total number of jet cargo aircraft decreased by 4.5% and the structure of this market changed. So, in 2000, 39.67% of the total number were narrow-body cargo aircraft and 40.01% medium wide body cargo aircraft. After a sharp increase in the use of narrow-body cargo aircraft in 2005 to 50.28% of the total in 2013, a proportional market structure was established (approximately 33% each segment).

Fig.3.15. in (built from data)

In addition to the economic factors that determine the use of cargo aircraft, it is necessary to take into account the existing practice of converting passenger aircraft into cargo aircraft. So, about 50% of the cargo aircraft operating in the world today were converted into cargo ones at one time. The conversion of passenger aircraft begins after 10 years of operation, since the peak use of passenger aircraft is 15 years. After conversion to the point of disposal, converted cargo aircraft operate for about 25 years. Since 2003, there has been a trend towards a reduction in the conversion practice (Figure 3.16).

Fig.3.16. in (built from data)

From a regional perspective, an analysis of the operation of cargo aircraft in 2012 (Fig. 3.17) shows that the largest share of the use of cargo aircraft falls on three regions: Asia-Pacific (29%), Europe (26%) and North America (25%).

Fig.3.17. in (built from data)

Let's compare the movement of freight and passenger traffic in the regional context. As can be seen from Figure 3.18, the operation of cargo and passenger aircraft by regions of the world has a similar distribution, which allows us to assume the influence of the same factors on these markets.

Fig.3.18. in (built from data)

Let us summarize the analysis of the development of the aircraft manufacturing market segments (final products) by simultaneously determining the distribution of segments by manufacturing companies and aircraft type (Fig. 3.19).

At present, two conglomerates Boeing (SELA) and Airbus S.A.S. (European Union) compete on the market of long-haul airliners (25.2% of the global aircraft manufacturing market), with a combined market share of more than 90%; in the regional aircraft market - Bombardier (Canada) and Embraer (Brazil) with a combined market share of about 78%. The production of the CIS countries, including Ukraine, reaches about 2% of civil aircraft.

Fig.3.19. c (end product 2010-2011 according to data)

Thus, the modern world fleet of civil airliners consists of jet and turboprop aircraft, which has a wide segmentation. Each type of aircraft through technical and economic characteristics has its own market niche and a certain area of ​​competition (flight range up to 1000 km; passenger capacity 60-99 seats). In general, jet aircraft are the most common in 2013. Turboprop aircraft are being phased out of service due to aging and are not being replaced in adequate numbers by new ones, but it is impossible to speak of a decline in this market segment. According to the results of the analysis of the operation of aircraft in the regional context, it is impossible to unequivocally determine the predominance of one or another type of aircraft, therefore, an explanation of the general dynamics and distribution of traffic by regions of the world requires studying the factors influencing the development of the aircraft manufacturing market. At the same time, it should be noted the uneven development of the aircraft industry by region.

I have already noted that in 2015 Russia took the 1st place in the world in the production of combat aircraft - see the data here:. Let's now see how things are with our "probable partners" - in the States and Europe, data on them for 2014 is here:

The F-35 became the most massive in serial production last year in the West, and the first aircraft was assembled outside the United States - in Italy

Let's look at the data:

USA

F-15 - 15 15 - 8 8 - 14 14 - 14 14 - 12 12

F-16 - 22 22 - 37 37 - 13 13 - 17 17 - 11 11

F-18 49 - 49 48 - 48 48 - 48 44 - 44 35 - 35

F-22 13 - 13 8 - 8 - - - - - - - - -

F-35 8 - 8 28 2 30 32 3 35 34 2 36 42 3 45

TOTAL: 70 37 107 84 47 131 80 30 110 78 33 111 77 26 103

Here you can also add a few AC-130Js and BPS R-8s released for themselves and India and note that the F-35 is still not a fully combat-ready fighter.
I also note that at present the United States does not produce UBS - the competition for new cars is just unfolding ...

The French "Rafale" still made its way to the foreign market - orders received from Egypt and Qatar

EUROPE: 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

to "myself"export everything to "myself"export everything to "myself"export everything to "myself"export everything to "myself"export everything

"Gripen" - 12 12 - 6 6 - 6 6 - - - - - -

Rafal 11 - 11 11 - 11 11 - 11 11 - 11 5 6 11

Typhoon 38 10 48 40 - 40 54 10 64 28 12 40 28 12 40

TOTAL: 49 22 71 51 6 57 65 16 81 39 12 51 33 18 51

The table again did not include the production of UBS - MV.339, MV.346 (in Italy) and "Hawk" (in Britain, including aircraft kits for India) - about two dozen a year - I do not have exact data.
We should expect an increase in the production of "Rafales" - due to the appearance of export orders - the first aircraft for Egypt were taken and slightly altered from those destined for the French Air Force.
In 2018, the production of "Gripenov" - already a new generation - will be resumed.

There are no exact data on China, but it can be assumed that, nevertheless, less than 100 combat aircraft were produced there in a year.
Now in serial production are:
- heavy bombers H-6K (development of Tu-16) - several aircraft are produced per year
- fighter "5th generation" J-20 - small-scale production started - several. units
- variants of the Su-27/30/33 - J-11/15/16 - it is impossible to establish exactly the production volumes - several. dozens per year
- J-10 fighter (created on the basis of the Israeli closed Lavi project - similar to the previous one ...
- fighter-bomber / front-line bomber JH-7
- JF-17 fighter (deep modernization of the MiG-21) - aircraft kits for Pakistan - 16 units, this number should increase to 25 per year
- UBS JL-8 / K-8 - actively exported, incl. aircraft kits for assembly in pakistan
- UBS JL-9 (deep modernization of the MiG-21U) - small-scale production
- UBS L-15 (supersonic based on the Yak-130) - small-scale production started
- BPS Y-8Q - BPS (based on a local copy of the An-12) - several. units per year

Besides:
South Korea manufactures and sells its UBS / light fighter F / T-50 quite successfully - about a dozen a year
India "forces out" its "Tejas" and UBS "Sitara" - no more than a dozen a year (in addition to assembling the Su-30 and UBS "Hawk")
I mentioned about Pakistan in the Chinese section
Iran collects something there like the F-5 - several pieces a year from all kinds of configurations
Brazil produces and och. successfully sells the Super Tucano turboprop attack aircraft - a dozen of 2 per year (in addition, similar Korean KT-1, American AT-802 and T-6 have strike options - in general, you can bomb with the An-26, for example ...)
Japan collected for 2-3 BPS R-1